Space Shuttle “Gone”

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I find it quite inditing of today’s climate that all the news programs explicitly have to rule out terrorism as the cause of the accident.

‘Aerodynamics May Explain Space Shuttle Breakup’

Jeffrey Kluger: There are three possible scenarios that explain this event. The first, which I believe is the likeliest explanation, would be an aerodynamic structural breakup of the shuttle caused by it rolling at the wrong angle. Remember, after reentry, the shuttle is descending without power, which means astronauts at the controls can’t compensate for a loss of attitude by using the engines, they can only do so using the flaps. And that’s extremely hard. Astronauts describe piloting the shuttle on reentry as like trying to fly a brick with wings. It’s very difficult to operate, and even more so to correct any problems.

A second explanation might be a loss of tiles leading to a burn-through. (The shuttle is covered with heat-resistant tiles to protect the craft and those inside it from burning up in the scorching temperatures caused by the friction of reentry.) But I think that explanation is unlikely, because the tile-loss would have had to have been quite substantial for that to become possible. You’ll hear a lot in the next few days about things falling off the shuttle during liftoff. But it often happens that they lose a few tiles, and I’d be surprised if it happened on a scale that could make an accident of this type possible.

The last option is some kind of engine failure leading to fuel ignition. Although the main tanks are mostly empty, there should still be fuel left in the maneuvering tanks. But probably not enough for an explosion that could have caused this breakup.

My thoughts are with the families of the astronauts who lost their lives today.

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